Tropical forest conservation and fires: Evidence from Indonesia

Confronted with high rates of deforestation, fire, and carbon emissions, the Indonesian government implemented a forest moratorium to halt land conversions by firms. This paper provides new evidence on its effect on fires, an environmental hazard closely associated with tropical deforestation. Using high-resolution satellite data and a matched difference-in-differences framework, I show that while the moratorium curbs deforestation, it does not reduce fire incidents. Protected peatlands within the moratorium boundaries exhibit an 18% higher burn probability after the moratorium compared to pre-treatment periods, relative to non-protected areas. The increase in fires is not attributed to direct illegal encroachment for oil palm plantations but rather to cross-boundary degradation pressures from neighboring plantations not sanctioned by the moratorium. Land conversions within these neighboring plantations weaken the natural fire resilience of adjacent protected peatlands, creating conditions for widespread fires across degraded, vulnerable landscapes. This highlights a critical policy concern: without complementary land management, conservation efforts may be compromised by intensified fire risks in protected areas lacking active oversight.